Best seed prognosis: On paper, the Midwest seems to be the most open of the four regions, but we still provide No. 1 North Carolina the best odds, with a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and also an 18 percent probability of appearing in the championship match. Those odds are 8 percentage points lower than every other No. 1 team in the area, however, and for good reason: North Carolina’s offense depends on turning each play into a quick break. The Tar Heels fight to get into the free-throw line and give up a ton of shots across the perimeter, which, in a slowed-down, half-court matchup, can be quite problematic.
After getting chased by Duke to open the summer, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent months while discovering equilibrium on both ends of the floor and largely abstaining from the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is in the middle of its best season because Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing college basketball, and they boast a defense which ranks among the very best together and in the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 5 Auburn. When the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it likely got the attention of a lot of bracket-pickers. That wasn’t a one-off — Auburn also conquer Tennessee eight days earlier, a portion of a series of eight straight wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their past 11 games. With an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficacy ) that got more of its points out of downtown compared to any other team in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We give the Tigers nearly a coin-flip’s likelihood of making the Sweet 16 — and also a very strong 37 percent chance of beating top-seeded North Carolina when the Tar Heels are awaiting Auburn there. The only kryptonite might be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which beat the Tigers by 27 in late February to sweep their season series.
Don’t wager : No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went to the year ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they seemed to validate that the choice by starting the season 10-0. But a 15-9 record (and some key injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament possible. This is a well-balanced group, but to state it doesn’t shoot well from the outside is an understatement — watch KU’s 3-for-18 functionality from deep into Saturday’s Big 12 ouster from Iowa State. Add an unfavorable draw that puts them on an expected second-round collision course with Auburn (see above), and we provide the Jayhawks only an 8% chance of making out of the Midwest with their championship hopes undamaged.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Ohio State. If a Big Ten team which has made 11 Final Fours could be a Cinderella, then you’re looking at it in these Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s increasing tendency to seed underwhelming power-conference schools this manner really contrasts with the definition.) OSU went only 18-13 throughout the regular season, was defeated in its second Big Ten tournament game and has almost twice as many losses as wins since New Year’s. Why are the Buckeyes a possible Cinderella? Regardless of the seed, this is still a dangerous group, one that ranks 27th from Pomeroy’s corrected defensive evaluations and contains celebrity forward Kaleb Wesson back out of suspension. So maybe they’ll give Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But this tells you something about the other potential Cinderellas within this region: Seton Hall got a very tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of those other low seeds are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team that did all it could to play its way out of this tournament, but has some mad potential no matter.
Player to watch: Cameron Johnson, UNC On a group that doesn’t hoist a lot of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as deadly as they come. Following an injury-riddled effort in which he made greater than one third of his looks from outside the arc, the grad student is canning 46.5 percent of his efforts, which positions inside the top 25 nationally.
Johnson has thrived in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity plot this season. He has blossomed into one of the greatest scorers in the ACC, standing between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficiency in transitionoff displays and on spot-ups.
Johnson has elevated his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive rating (132.5) and true shooting percentage (64.6). Suddenly, a participant who wasn’t viewed as a guaranteed professional now projects for a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Have a look at our March Madness forecasts.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A previous version of this story misstated the number of Sweet 16s made by Villanova lately. Although the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s”third round” in four of their past five seasons, that around was the Round of 32 before 2016 because of NCAA naming conventions.

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