The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. After an electric start to the season at Daytona and two quick 1.5-mile tracks in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Monster Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race at the tighter quarters of the one-mile loop in ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five March races in this track and is the 9-4 preferred to collect another win at the most current 2019 TicketGuardian 500 chances. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is getting 16-1, while Kurt Busch is at 30-1 NASCAR in Phoenix chances after a strong start to his season that has him at eighth in the NASCAR standings. Prior to making your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 picks, be sure to look at the NASCAR at Phoenix projected leaderboard in the SportsLine Projection Model.

Developed by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive information scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and current results into account.

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, such as correctly casting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. in Sonoma. Plus it is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four competition and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers at last week’s Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. Anyone who has followed its selections is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in places like ISM Raceway have been in his bloodstream. His version has now simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we could inform you the model is high on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run in the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot at 25-1 NASCAR chances. He is a target for anybody searching for a massive payday.

Bowyer struck a five-season drought without a win last year and went on to grab a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the road to some 12th-place end in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he has added a top-five complete at Atlanta and has revealed impressive speed at times. Bowyer has seven career top-10s in Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who pushes for Stewart-Haas Racing, was also second in one of this year’s Daytona Duels and shut out a year’s NASCAR schedule with an eight-place ending at Homestead. He will also come equipped into the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 using a similar vehicle setup to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

Among the shocking 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix picks from the version: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner at ISM Raceway along with the top Vegas favorite, makes a strong run but falls short of winning it all.

Harvick has made a career out of getting to the front of the package consistently at this particular track. In fact, He’s finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway

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